AUD/USD Forecast and News
Australian Dollar offers some gains despite tepid US Dollar
The Australian Dollar appreciates, propelled by an increasing hawkish sentiment surrounding the RBA. Australia’s Retail Sales could provide insight into consumer spending habits on Tuesday. The US Dollar retraces its recent gains due to the possible shift toward risk-on sentiment.
Latest Australian Dollar News
AUD/USD Technical Overview
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6560 on Monday. The pair has extended its advance within a symmetrical triangle formation, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) positioned above the 50-level, affirming a bullish stance.
In terms of potential upward targets, the AUD/USD pair may set its sights on the psychological barrier at 0.6600 and subsequently aim for the upper boundary of the triangle, situated around 0.6639.
On the downside, immediate support is anticipated around the psychological threshold of 0.6500. Should this level be breached, it could pave the way for further downside momentum, with the subsequent notable support zone lying around 0.6443, followed by additional support levels at April’s low of 0.6362.
Fundamental Overview
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its winning streak on Monday that began on April 22, trading around the three-week high of 0.6560. The AUD's upward momentum is fueled by increasing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), spurred by last week's CPI inflation data surpassing expectations.
The Australian Financial Review reported that Warren Hogan, chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, anticipated that the RBA could implement three cash rate hikes throughout 2024, ultimately reaching 5.1%, with the initial increase likely occurring in August. Investors are likely awaiting the March Retail Sales data, scheduled for release on Tuesday, as it provides insight into Australia's consumer spending habits, which significantly impact inflation and GDP trends.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, retraces its recent gains, possibly reflecting a shift toward risk-on sentiment in the market. However, market analysts anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25%–5.5% in its upcoming announcement on Wednesday, likely due to concerns over elevated inflation levels. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rates remaining unchanged in the June meeting has risen to 87.7%, up from last week’s 81.7%.
On Friday, the annual US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for March showed an uptick, adding weight to the notion that the Fed may delay any potential rate cuts until September, as indicated by market speculation.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Australian Dollar-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUD/USD Big Picture
AUD/USD Bullish Themes
AUD/USD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD retreats below 1.0700 as USD rebounds
EUR/USD lost its traction and retreated slightly below 1.0700 in the American session, erasing its daily gains in the process. Following a bearish opening, the US Dollar holds its ground and limits the pair's upside ahead of the Fed policy meeting later this week.
GBP/USD holds positive ground above 1.2500 on weaker US Dollar, Fed rate decision looms
The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.2520 on Monday during the early Asian session. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the softer US Dollar below the 106.00 psychological mark. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision and Press Conference on Wednesday.
USD/JPY recovers toward 157.00 following suspected intervention
USD/JPY recovers ground and trades above 156.50 after sliding to 154.50 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. Later this week, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and US employment data could trigger the next big action.
Gold holds steady above $2,330 to start the week
Gold fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above $2,330 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrects lower and helps XAU/USD limit its losses ahead of this week's key Fed policy meeting.
WTI slides below $83.00 amid demand concerns, supply disruption fears to limit losses
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices kick off the new week on a weaker note and slide below the $83.00/barrel mark during the Asian session.
Majors
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Signatures
AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUD/USD move this year? Our experts make an AUD/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the Aussie-US Dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 AUD/USD forecast!
AUD/USD FORECAST 2024
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started 2023 on a high note, though slumped closer to its post-pandemic low against the USD during the latter part of the year. The currency clawed back some of its steep declines during the final two months of 2023, and the outlook seems sunnier in the wake of the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the Greenback. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR AUD/USD
Will the Fed will achieve a soft landing? The current market pricing for a more aggressive policy easing by the central bank next year might have already set the stage for a disappointment and favours the USD bulls. This should allow the USD to resume the prior uptrend witnessed since July 2023 and keep a lid on a runaway rally for the AUD/USD pair.
The upcoming US Presidential election could also play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and driving the aussie.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Michele Bullock.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock is an Australian economist who is currently governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced as governor on 18 September 2023, and is the first woman to hold the role. She is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, Payments System Board and Council of Financial Regulators. Prior to her current role, Ms Bullock was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Michele Bullock RBA's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).